Three parties, three numbers: how Australia’s migration promises look from Kampala
News · 2026-08-26 · 4 min read
If you follow Australian news from Kampala or Entebbe, you will keep meeting three letters: NOM. Every party quotes it, argues over it and struggles to define it the same way twice. Understanding what it measures will help you read visa headlines more calmly. This guide starts with the definition, then compares the parties, then asks what it means for a skilled applicant.
A quick definition
NOM is the number of people who arrive in Australia and remain for at least a year, minus those who leave to settle abroad. The method is more layered than a soundbite. Under the 12/16-month rule, someone counts if they spend 12 months in Australia within any 16-month window, even across several visits. A student who spends a month at home and comes back is still counted.
It is not a measure of visa grants alone. It folds in returning Australian citizens and permanent residents and New Zealanders crossing the Tasman, groups that move mostly without visas. Diplomats and their families are left out. Short-term workers under the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility (PALM) programme may or may not count, depending on how long they stay.
Where the figure stands
The latest estimate is roughly 301,000 for the year to December 2025, well below a post-pandemic high of about 556,000 in 2023 but above official forecasts. Forecasters pencil in 225,000 by 2027–28, though their earlier forecasts undershot. In 2024–25, international students were the biggest single contributor at about 157,000 arrivals, mainly in higher education. Skilled visa holders added around 86,000, working holiday-makers close to 78,000, family reunion around 24,000 and humanitarian visas just under 15,000. Returning Australians accounted for 64,000 and New Zealanders for 53,000. Our summary of the population forecasts adds more context.
Three pledges compared
| Party | Figure | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| One Nation | 130,000 | Messaging has been inconsistent; a newer MP suggested a real figure near 225,000 once PALM workers and aged care nurses were included, then senior figures reaffirmed 130,000. Cuts flagged: graduate visas, student numbers, a tighter skilled list. |
| Coalition | Not fixed; suggestions of under 200,000 | Any cap linked to housing construction. One senator floated 180,000 aimed at working holiday, student and select skilled visas; colleagues distanced themselves. |
| Labor | 225,000 by 2028 | Focus on enforcement, so temporary visa holders leave on expiry, and slower processing for working holiday and skilled applications. |
What a Ugandan applicant should take from it
The practical lesson is not the total. It is the list of categories being singled out. Student, graduate, working holiday and parts of the skilled visa list are all under active scrutiny. That means processing times, eligibility criteria and annual caps in those streams are more likely to shift soon than family reunion or humanitarian intake. Working holiday arrangements do not cover Ugandan passport holders, so those figures are background. Meanwhile regional and rural employers depend heavily on working holiday-makers for seasonal labour, which is why a cut there is contested. For more on this angle, read why some say Australia needs more workers, not fewer.
Common mistakes to avoid
- Treating a target as a certainty, when real numbers have repeatedly strayed from projections.
- Quoting a figure without knowing whether it includes citizens and New Zealanders.
- Assuming that a UNEB result or a certificate from the Directorate of Industrial Training (DIT) is the same as an Australian licence, skills assessment or registration.
- Applying without advice. Use a migration agent on the MARA register for Australia, or a licensed immigration adviser for New Zealand.
Keep your documents up to date and your CV clear, perhaps with Build AI CV, and browse the job listings.
Frequently asked questions
Why do parties disagree on NOM?
Because it mixes visa holders with returning citizens and New Zealanders, which are hard to control by visa policy.
What did NOM peak at?
Around 556,000 in 2023.
What target does Labor use?
225,000 by 2028.
Which streams could change soonest?
Student, graduate, working holiday and parts of the skilled list.
Are targets promises?
No. They are a direction of travel.
Key takeaways
- NOM includes returning citizens, permanent residents and New Zealanders.
- The latest figure is roughly 301,000, down from about 556,000.
- One Nation says 130,000; the Coalition links a cap to homes; Labor uses 225,000 by 2028.
- Watch categories under scrutiny.
- Keep plans flexible and documents ready.
#australia migration targets #net overseas migration #uganda #political parties #visa policy
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